Brexit 2019: The UK will choose between recession and relief

Britain has a stark economic choice to make next year: recession or relief. The United Kingdom is due to leave the European Union on March 29. Getting out of the bloc without reaching an exit agreement will lead to unrest. An agreement would reduce the damage to the economy. Economists at UBS, led by Arend Kapteyn, say their view of the British economy is “dual.” They warn that trade disruptions caused by Britain’s exit from the EU will “plunge the UK into recession.” A deal that would delay difficult decisions and provide certainty for the business. Prime Minister Teresa Mae has negotiated a divorce deal with the European Union but faces a long deal in parliament. British lawmakers are expected to vote on the deal next month. The recession fueled by Britain’s Brexit … The EU suddenly left without reaching an agreement somewhere that would cause a disaster for companies in the UK. They will face new trade barriers and an uncertain legal environment. Business lobby groups have warned that many companies are unwilling to deal with anarchist Brexit. “The UK will only have time to re-establish the hundreds of international and regulatory trade treaties that are now a party through its membership in the European Union,” said Andrew Goodwin, associate director at Oxford University. Government studies predict that the UK economy will be 7.7% smaller 15 years after Britain’s exit from the European Union in an unregulated way if it adheres to current trade arrangements. The damage will be greater if immigration from the EU falls. Economists expect the damage to appear quickly. Capital Economics predicts that an unregulated British exit will lead to a 0.2% contraction in the economy in 2019. The pound is likely to fall to $ 1.12 against the dollar, from its current level of $ 1.26. According to Oxford Economics, the economy will be 2.1% smaller by the end of 2020 than a scenario in which the exit deal is terminated. … or relief? While the UK economy will be worse off under all the British exit scenarios being studied by the government, agreeing on an agreement will provide certainty to companies that spent the last two years in the dark on future terms of trade with the EU. Business groups have urged British lawmakers to approve the May agreement. The high levels of uncertainty contributed to a major slowdown in the UK economy in the second half of this year. Consumer spending and commercial investment have been hit since voters chose to leave their biggest trading partner in 2016. “While long-term risks to the UK’s likely growth from Britain’s exit from the EU are looming, the prospect of a deal represents “The economy is in the medium term,” said Calum Pickering, a senior economist at Berenberg. “Companies that have been most at risk, such as automakers, will see the biggest benefits of the deal,” Peking said. Going out of May or now No cloud without it is not the only option There are two other scenarios that would leave the UK economy better off than the unregulated British exit: postponing or giving up altogether.


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